The last eighteen months have proved quite volatile for raw material prices. Despite a general lag in the U.S. economy, several key markets for specialty chemicals have experienced very strong results in 2010. This is due to a resurgence in the N. American automotive segment, as well as strong exports due to the weak dollar. Other segments continue to lag, such as residential and commercial construction.
Several factors have led to rising prices:
1. Reduced supply. After a very difficult 2008, several key producers permanently reduced capacity in 2009. Capacity at chemical plants in not something that can be turned on or off very quickly. Often times, plants take years to construct and require hundreds of millions of dollars of capital investment. In the global economic climate that we have experienced over the last few years, not many companies have made the decision to add capacity. Coupled with recovering demand, prices are bound to rise. This impact is expected to continue into 2011 as the construction markets begin to recover. In our opinion, many manufacturers are not eager to increase capacity as they are enjoying the benefits of higher sell prices. Take a look at the profitability of most multinational chemical companies; many at at or near record levels and sell prices are one of the key drivers of this.
2. Increased demand. As demand recovers in N. America, and supply remains tight, prices will continue to be driven up. It will be very telling later this year as the Paint & Coatings season kicks in, to see what impact this has on the overall market demand. Over the last eighteen months, we have experienced shortages on several raw materials. Many products still continue to be on allocation today. This will continue to be a limiting factor for some of our customers if they are unable to get enough product to make their finished goods.
3. Weak $. Many key chemicals are imported to the U.S. from Asia, Europe, etc. As the U.S. dollar remains weak, the price of these imports will continue to rise. Fluctuations with the Japanese, Chinese and EU currencies will continue to directly effect the price of chemicals in the U.S.
4. Crude oil. The price of crude oil continues to rise (over $100/barrel today) and therefore the price of many chemicals will increase as well. Many resins, solvents, etc. are produced direclty from oil and the more expensive that oil gets, the more expensive that chemicals will get. There is a snowball effect with the price of oil on plastics, consumer goods, packaging, etc.
When looking from a historical perspective, price volatility today is at very high levels. Time will tell what the rest of 2011 will bring, but indications are that prices will not be dropping any time soon.
As a distributor, in essence stuck in the middle between manufacturers and customers, we are forced to pass on increases as we receive them from our manufacturing partners. The costs structure and margins that distributors make do not afford us the opportunity to absorb higher costs. One big problem that we see today is that manufacturers continue to provide less and less lead time on these increases. In the past, where we may have been able to ramp up our inventory levels to delay passing on increases to customers, this is becoming more and more difficult when we get as little as 7 days notice.
Learn more information about Maroon Inc. at www.marooninc.com